Pittsburgh apparently drives outsiders nuts.

OK, thanks to Sherrie Flick, I discovered this incredibly annoying article in an SF alt-newsite. It's ostensibly about how the G-20 coming to Pittsburgh will be problematic, but it turns out mostly to be about how the writer has a lot of issues, including classism and ignorance. She's already appended a note apologizing about the classism, but there's no corrections to her factual errors, so:

I appreciate the apology and the frank admission of classism, but I'm actually more annoyed by the factual inaccuracies.

The Eastside development (it's a distinct property that is actually in upscale Shadyside, although it's popularly considered East Liberty) has not razed a single "historic brick building" - not one. It has, however, spurred the renovation and redevelopment of no fewer than 6 nearby historic properties, 1 of which houses a good Caribbean restaurant and 2 of which house Pittsburgh's first Ethiopian restaurants, run by imigrants - not exactly the stuff of gentrification.

Meanwhile, Bloomfield-Garfield Corporation, which is exclusively staffed by longtime neighborhood residents, has mostly bought up vacant and blighted properties, as well as a bar that was nothing more than a front for drug dealing (the suburban building owner claimed ignorance). The 50 new, single-family houses they're in the process of building in the neighborhood are subsidized and targeted for below-median buyers (a single mother who rented on my street moved to one because, although the neighborhood was "tough," she was looking forward to owning).

The bottom line is that, in a city that has lost over 50% of its population in 50 years, there is no threat that an influx of new residents will gentrify and drive out the well-established local culture.

Wait 'Til 2011?

That’s the year that some baseball folks around here (including Rocco DeMaro, who does the postgame show on the radio, and, more notably, some in the front office) are tentatively pointing to as when the Pirates could maybe start competing. In the aftermath of the McLouth trade, my frustration was that the trade seemed to be an announcement that the Pirates had no intention of trying to compete before then*. Regardless, that’s the golden year, the one year where we will still have the best of our current pitchers (Duke, Maholm) as well as most of the coming talent. Here’s the best case lineup, if every minor leaguer progresses as he should (but assuming no miracle seasons):

G Hernandez, CF
A McCutcheon, LF
P Alvarez, 1B
R Doumit, C
J Tabata, RF
An LaRoche, 3B
S Ford, 2B
?????, SS

That’s pretty good looking, at least 1-6. However, it’s assuming a little bit that Tabata and Hernandez both make it by then; it’s assuming a lot that both will contribute as rookies; it’s assuming unrealistically that both will come north with the team, as opposed to being late May callups (the Longoria/Wieters rule of arbitration-delay should hold). With that in mind, suddenly this lineup doesn’t look much better than today’s, does it? Cutch should be better, but he’s already been so good, I don’t think you can project too much more from him (maybe some more pop). Alvarez should be fine as a rookie (and, again, I’m not convinced he’s with Pittsburgh from April, unless he breaks out big time in 2010), but I don’t know that you can really project him, in 2011, as better than Adam LaRoche today (plus his glove will be worse). Doumit is Doumit (if he’s healthy), LaRoche will maybe show a bit more pop, and that’s it. Ford will obviously be a downgrade from Sanchez, no one in the system represents an upgrade from Wilson at SS, and I don’t think it’s realistic to expect a free agent signing who would be an upgrade, either (maybe someone with more bat but less D, which I’m calling a wash on a team without strikeout pitchers). So, in 2011, the offense is about where it is now, albeit with upside.

B Lincoln
Z Duke
P Maholm
C Morton
R Ohlendorf

There’s lots of guys we can slot in 4-5, but they’re all about what you get with Morton and Ohlendorf – credible, major league pitchers, but not much more. From what Dejan has written, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep Lincoln away, so let’s assume he comes up in 2010, gets his growing pains out of the way, and is prepared to be an ace in 2011. Duke and Maholm, who knows, but let’s pretend that, unlike Gorzo and Snell (and Cordova and Benson and…), they’re for real.

It’s a credible, even good, rotation, and a semi-credible offense, plus an excellent defensive outfield. Is it a much better team than 2009? I don’t see it. I mean, there’s clearly more talent, but I think it’s extremely unrealistic to imagine that a lineup that’s 50% rookie will have no growing pains: if any of Tabata, Hernandez, or Alvarez pull an Andy LaRoche, that alone drags the team below 2009 performance. But 2011 is probably when we crack .500.

Meanwhile, in 2012 we lose Duke and Maholm. Bryan Morris and Jeff Locke, fruit of the Bay and McLouth trades respectively, could be ready by then, but will be 25 and 24. It’s hard to imagine both of them stepping in and becoming 2-3 starters. That said, all of my caveats above about the offense should be resolved by 2012. So call it a wash with 2011. 82 wins again.

Finally, we reach 2013, about as far as we can project. Feeling positive, I’ll grant that the offense is hitting on all cylinders – we’ve either drafted a stud SS or, heartened by 2 years of decent baseball, Huntington opens the checkbook for a solid FA – and Morris and Locke both pan out, staying healthy. I can finally see a team that can not only compete, but actually look like a division favorite. But there’s an awful lot to go wrong between then and now. And, more important, I’m not convinced that 2011 and 2012 look so much better than 2009’s team, a team that all the cool kids agree sucks.

When does Steelers Training Camp start in 2012, anyway?

* McCutcheon has been, not surprisingly, a great substitute for McLouth, but that ignores the gaping hole that is Brandon Moss in RF – Cutch could have come up and McLouth could have slid over, and that would have been an improvement. Meanwhile, Charlie Morton is, to date, nothing more than John van Benschoten, Jr. He may well turn out to be more, but it’s foolish to look at a guy with mixed success in the minors (he was rarely more than mediocre in A and AA ball) and one terrible stint in the majors as a significant pickup.

What’s the Prognosis, Doctor?

When the Dave Littlefield era mercifully came to an end two summers ago, everyone agreed the organization was a mess. Talent evaluation had failed, player development had failed, and a poor major league club was backed up with a barren minor league system. Other than Andrew McCutcheon, not a single impact player was on the horizon. New team president Frank Coonley and GM Neil Huntington started to rebuild, a four-letter word in Pittsburgh, where rebuilding commenced in 1993 and has never ceased. Nonetheless, disgust with Littlefield opened a window – the fan base could swallow a little directed action.

Unfortunately, Huntington – a man who, in the comically bad Torres trade and the unceremonial dump of Jose Bautista, not to mention his intemperate remarks about Snell, has shown a clear willingness to act based on emotion and pride* - misunderstood what he had. Recognizing that the minors were devoid of talent, Huntington determined that the major league club represented little more than trade bait for a restocking the farm system. As a result, when the outfield in 2008 coalesced into the best in baseball, he didn’t spend a moment thinking about how to build on that; he saw players to be traded, and now that outfield is all gone.

But the 2008 team wasn’t very good, despite that outfield, right? Actually, the 2008 team was – as I said at the time, in various online fora – two mediocre pitchers away from 85 wins. Last year I mined all sorts of game-by-game results to show that the combination of Matt Morris, Tom Gorzelanny, and the awful revolving cast of AAA callups were responsible for more than 2 dozen games in which the Pirates had almost literally no chance to win – games in which the starter gave up 5 or more runs by the 5th inning, often leaving early and severely overtaxing a bullpen that, at the back end, was as good as any in baseball. This year I don’t need to do that to make my point, because this year, with the same 3 core starters (Maholm, Duke, & Snell), plus two mediocre pitchers, the team’s runs allowed total has gone from a breathtaking 884 runs in 2008 to a projected 714 in 2009. Meanwhile, the 2008 offense was on pace, before the Bay trade, to score 800 runs. 800 runs scored plus 714 runs allowed projects to a season win total of 90.

90. Can you comprehend that, Pittsburgh?

Now, all things are never equal, and you can’t simply assume that the April-July of Bay, Nady, and McLouth could be duplicated by Bay, McLouth, and Morgan. But I think it shows, pretty clearly, just how close the Pirates actually were. I would argue that, with only 2 changes made, the Pirates would be in or near first place, several games above .500, right now, and without having mortgaged their future.

Change 1: Don’t trade Bay, obviously. In terms of PNC Park impact, you put Bay in RF, keep the dynamic Morgan/McLouth/McCutcheon LF/CF combo (I don’t even care if they trade McLouth). No Bryan Morris, but that’s a maybe for 2012, not something I’m putting too much weight on. Craig Hansen has had no impact on the team, and at best is a replaceable bullpen piece. But then there’s Andy LaRoche, which brings us to…

Change 2: Sign a free agent 3B in the offseason. Now this is the tricky part. There were not a lot of decent FA 3Bs last year – Joe Crede, Jerry Hairston, Mike Lamb, and Ty Wigginton are the cream of the crop, which is pretty crappy cream. But neither Hairston nor, particularly, Crede would represent much of a step down from LaRoche, nor would they have cost much money, nor would either be blocking Pedro Alvarez or, I suppose, Neil Walker.

With those two changes, the Pirates are a much better team in 2009 – statistically, they would almost certainly be in first place (Bay is worth at least 10 runs so far over Moss, and we’ll call 3B a wash; that would put our Runs Scored/Runs Allowed ratio at 345/330, which is better than anyone in the NL Central has shown). And they are no worse down the road, except possibly in 2012 or 2013 when Morris is scheduled to arrive.

Most important, if the Pirates were winning this year (and if they hadn’t traded Bay last year), PNC Park would be packed. Easily averaging over 20k/game (that’s what they did in 1997, at 3 Rivers). Increasing revenues before the magic year of 2011. Completely changing the perception of them around baseball. Even if Bay leaves after 2009 (and, in this economy, I bet he’d take a hometown discount for a suddenly-contending Pirates), 2010 represents at worst a step backwards, and 2011 a fulfillment of 2009’s promise.

Instead, it’s wait ‘til next year year after that (maybe). And all because Neil Huntington saw a sprained ankle and decided to shoot the horse.

* in the Torres trade he evidently decided that a player who had clashed with previous management must be a problem, and traded a closer-grade pitcher on a good contract for the proverbial bag of balls; in the Bautista trade, he decided he’d rather have a mediocre player that he’d acquired than a mediocre player he’d inherited – not indefensible, but not exactly shrewd

For Want of a Busy Signal

[This post is #2 of 4 that I wrote all together yesterday, before the latest trades. I was planning to space them out a bit, but time is of the essence. FWIW, other than this note, all of the content in this post and the two following was written before the Morgan/Burnett trade came down]

I’m increasingly seeing the Bay trade as the worst thing that’s happened to the Pirates since Dave Littlefield lost his mind.

Dejan Kovacevic of the Post-Gazette likes to note that, last summer, the consensus was that the Bay trade was the good one, and the Nady trade the bad one. But that’s not how I saw it at the time. I understood all the reasons to trade Nady, although I liked the guy. I was a bit let down to see Marte go, but 2 major league starters, plus the maybe-stud of Tabata, seemed like a good return. Frankly, the Pirates – not the organization, but the team – looked stronger on July 30 than they had a week before.

2008 was still a lost cause – too many starts by Morris, Gorzelanny, and the rotating disaster that was the #6 starter had squandered baseball’s best offensive outfield, and #3 offense overall – but the pieces were mostly in place for a solid 2009.

Then, just when it seemed that Jason Bay would, against all odds, remain in Pittsburgh, the Dodgers called the Pirates and Red Sox one minute before the trade deadline and upped their offer. It was done. The face of the team, their best hitter, was gone. In return, the Pirates got OF Brandon Moss, RHP Craig Hansen, 3B Andy LaRoche, and A-ball starter Bryan Morris.

Moss has been a bust, providing essentially replacement-level offense and defense in right field, one of the two easiest positions in baseball, especially at PNC Park. LaRoche, after an epically inept 2008, has become a solid young third baseman. Hansen has been hurt, and Morris has continued his history of injury - whatever his upside, he has to be considered an if, not a when.

In other words, to date, the Pirates have gotten Andy LaRoche for Jason Bay – a comically bad return for a guy who has been the best player on the American League’s best team. And why? Because Neil Huntington, in my opinion, badly misdiagnosed this team. And because, in this day and age, it’s too damn easy to make last minute phone calls.

It’s Easy If You Try

Imagine, if you will, that it’s the morning after the Penguins victory parade. A still-giddy Steel City picks up the paper and looks at the baseball standings for the first time since April, and spies the Pirates 3 games over .500, 2.5 games out of first place.

Not much of a fantasy? Well, it doesn’t have to be because, statistically, that’s about what should have happened. This Pirates team – the team of Ian Knucklehead, Brandon “Replacement Player” Moss, Adam “Icemay” LaRoche, and 20 sad games with Ramon Bixler at SS – has outscored its opponents thus far in 2009. On that day, the real life Pirates were 31-34, but they had outscored opponents 288-280, a rate that should correspond to an 82-80 final record, and, on June 17, could just as well have made the Pirates, say, 34-31.

Its not much of a stretch to think that that alternate reality – statistically more likely than ours – would have seen a surge of Bucs Fever in Pittsburgh. This town is desperate to see winning baseball, as the buzz over the Pirates’ 31-31 record a few years back will attest. They’re selling shirts in the Strip right now in the form of a Championship Checklist, with the Steelers’ and Penguins’ boxes duly checked in. What’s amazing to me is that there’s no snark attached to the next team on the list. It’s the Pirates, with an empty box – as if anyone in his right mind could hope to see it checked. But there it is, an emblem of a city that wants to believe.

Credit Where Due

Hot-looking PCs from Dell. One is even wrapped in bamboo. And they use less energy than most, so not just eye candy.

That said, they look almost exactly like this super-hot stereo system* I spotted on a shelf in an IKEA ad about 3 years ago. And it was a retro design. So maybe not bleeding edge ID from Dell. But better than they've managed heretofore, so, kudos.

* Sadly, no longer on the market, apparently. But uncannily like these computers.

Now things get interesting

Today's Tour stage was what a mountain stage should look like. Team strategy, small group tactics, and individual effort. Cadel Evans, default favorite as the only returning Paris podium member from 2007, came into the day only one second up, with a team (Silence-Lotto, formerly Davitamon-Lotto, formerly Predictor-Lotto; Lotto is one company, the other part of the name is the pharmaceutical d'anno of the other sponsor) that doesn't look very strong, and a reputation as a time trialist, rather than a climber (not to mention the victim of this blog's official policy). Just one second behind was Fränk Schleck who, with brother Andy and perennial Grand Tour threat Carlos Sastre*, form a solid core for CSC-Saxo Bank. Also within a minute were American Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Chipotle), young Austrian Bernhard Kohl (Gerolsteiner), and onetime white jersey** Russian Denis Menchov (Rabobank - still the best jerseys on the Tour).

So, with all that laid out before the first Alpine day (of three) of the Tour, who would do what? Evans can out-TT all the other contenders, but even a dominating performance in a 53 km TT like Stage 20 can't blow away the field the way a crushing mountain victory can - Evans can expect to gain a few minutes on the road to Saint-Amand-Montrond, but he could lose 10 or 20 minutes on the slopes of Alpe D'Huez (where Schleck won a couple years ago). The course for today's stage consisted of a big climb early, a steep bump towards the end, then a long, but not too steep, climb to a mountaintop finish. An early breakaway quartet looked well-positioned to stay away, with legit riders like Egoi Martinez and Danny Pate (Garmin-Chipotle), but no one so high-placed as to demand chasing. But it's hard for a small group to stay ahead of the contenders that inevitably shred the peloton as they drive up the final climb. In the event, a couple of crashes helped the breakaway stay ahead - although Pate wouldn't have minded dropping back into the yellow jersey group with team leader Vande Velde.

Meanwhile, CSC started picking up the pace on that steep bump I mentioned, and Evans was already without a teammate when the ascent to Prato Nevoso began. With a group of about ten (a few riders were losing and regaining contact), all the contenders were in place for the 11 km climb. And here's where things got really exciting. As Joe Lindsay of the Boulder Report noted, this is what you see when none of the riders are doping - everyone was very close, with no one able to simply ride off (as disgraced Ricardo Ricco and his Saunier Duval teammates had done in the Pyrenees, making a mockery of the competition). CSC, with 3 riders, kept attacking, but the group held together until the final 3 km, when Sastre attacked and only Kohl, Valverde, and Menchov were able to follow. At the end, the Kohl group finished about 40 seconds ahead of the Evans group, with Fränk Schleck putting in a big pull to gain 9 seconds on Evans - enough for an 8 second lead in the overall. Kohl is one second ahead of Evans, but it's hard to imagine him staying close for another week.

Meanwhile, the leaderboard shows 6 riders within a minute of the overall lead, and 5 of them legit GC contenders. Tomorrow is a rest day, then Tuesday's Alpine stage is a valley finish, some 20 km past the final summit - unless a rider completely blows up on the climb, he should be able to close any outrageous gap. That leaves the legendary Alpe D'Huez for Wednesday. The final TT will be definitive, of course, but we should have a much better sense of who can pull it off after Huez.

* Although Sastre has finished third and fourth in the Tour and second (twice) and fourth in the Vuelta, he's best known to casual fans for crossing the finish line with a pacifier in his mouth - it's even part of his website's logo. He did it in honor of his newborn daughter when he won the 13th stage of the 2003 Tour.

** Best young rider - 2003

A Revival of Small Town America?

This is a rewrite of a comment I left over at Yglesias's. It has to do with the implications of the coming flight from exurbs - people won't just return to cities and inner ring suburbs. They'll rediscover America's small towns - or at least they might.

Tthe thing about small towns - my model is the county seat - is that they're very flexible, because 19th century American town planning was simple and adaptable - the scale makes autos feasible, but in no way dictates driving for daily living.

I've pointed this out before - before WW2, most county seats in America were linked by trolley to the nearest big city. County seats are still at least minor employment centers thanks to courthouses. The dense CBDs are still there, but usually at least a quarter vacant.

The big question is what needs to be done to allow such places to take advantage of the nascent demand for walkable, transit-oriented communities. What makes college towns work is a one-two punch of a big local employer (a small college with grounds will have nearly as many total employees as students) and a captive population. But even with these factors in their favor, they often struggle to maintain vitality in the face of the commercial strip at the edge of town. Maybe $5 gas will reverse the still-recent trend of auto ubiquity on campus.

Probably the simplest solution for non-college towns is recruitment of the kinds of businesses that til now have located in suburban office parks - drop a couple of 500 employee offices in the mid-height tower across from the courthouse, and you've got a daytime population to foster retail vitality, plus a group of people who have a huge incentive to live in town, or at the near margins. The business benefits from offering such a lifestyle to their employees, and, thanks to the courthouse, the necessary amenities for business are existing. The key is to keep the businesses from building massive parking structures (or worse, lots) - they would undermine the density of the town, while encouraging workers to live distantly, emptying downtown at sundown.

Washington, PA is potentially a model of this. The developer responsible for the über-office park Southpointe has shifted directions and built a handsome new office building in downtown Washington (they're also investing in downtown Pittsburgh, but that's much more comprehensive and mixed use). Washington is straight down I-79 from Pittsburgh, and a decent little town, but it's been hollowed out. Here is a chance for it to fill back in.

Maz and the Battlin' Bucs

In honor of the Yankees' long-awaited return to the site of their momentous 1960 World Series defeat at the hands of the underdog Pirates, I'm going to post something I wrote almost 8 years ago. I've always meant to turn it into a bit more, but for now, here it is:

October 13, 1960, Bill Mazeroski hit the most famous World Series homerun ever, beating the Yankees at Forbes Field in the bottom of the 9th, Game 7. Pittsburgh celebrated as it never has, before or since: people spilled into the streets, honking horns, embracing strangers, etc. The players themselves joined the throngs in the streets, wandering up the road to Schenley Park.

Every year since 1985, a loyal few fans have gathered on October 13 at the remnants of the Forbes Field outfield wall to listen to a recording of the radio broadcast. At 3:36, a cheer goes up. This past October was the 40th anniversary, and there was no way I was going to miss it; my boss at the time, at a job I'd only just started, looked a little incredulous when I announced at 1 that I was leaving, but it was an incredibly beautiful day that I wouldn't miss for the world.

I made my way through Oakland to the site, and came upon an enormous crowd: hundreds of fans had gathered, in a carnival atmosphere. One entrepreneur had a plexiglas-encased model of Forbes Field on a table, surrounded by T-shirts, while the faithful had set up lawn chairs surrounding the pathetic old boombox. I wheedled my way in close, where it was still the 5th inning. Several old Pirates were there, trading recollections; fans called to them like old friends. As the time drew near, the crowd kept growing, with film crews and the Pirates Parrot making the scene. In an striking reversal of an old Forbes Field tradition, a photographer climbed a spindly tree to get a shot of fans listening to the game. About the 7th inning, a limo pulled up, and a buzz rose in the crowd; could it be?

Of course it was: Maz showed up, for the first time. After a lengthy ovation, and chants of "Hall of Fame, Hall of Fame" (he would finally make it a few years later, and his prepared speech at the ceremony was replaced by an eloquent silence; he was too tearful to say more than a couple words), a path was cleared, and Maz sat between the two founders of the tradition. For 2 innings, he signed countless mementoes - game tickets, newspapers, as well as random Pirates ephemera. At the start of the 9th inning his hand started to give out, and he took a rest. The game see-sawed back and forth, and an 8th inning Pirate homer seemed to seal the deal, but the Yanks roared back in the 9th, taking a 2 run lead. Those of us in the front rows (did I mention I was within 5 feet of Maz?) leaned in to follow the action, as the old-timers called out the batters as they came up - the fans knew who would do what.

Finally the moment came, preceded by hushes through the crowd. At the crack of the bat, the fans rose in a shout, clapping and cheering and hooting & hollering. Maz stood with old teammate Nellie Briles, who raised Maz' arm in triumph. We shouted til we were hoarse, calling out "thanks Maz." It was an amazing window to a baseball-crazed town of 40 years before.

So annoyed, I have to post.

OK, it's not really news: developer gives big bucks to mayor, reaps rewards. But this case is just so obvious and petty, and the developer is so noxious:

It took nine months for residents of Oakland's North Neville Street to get a few new parking spaces from the city. It took politically connected developer Walnut Capital a week to take some of those spaces away.

[...]

When residents parked in front of The Metropolitan, they found warnings on building letterhead on their windshields saying they had "parked in a reserved parking area. Your license has been recorded. The next violation will result in vehicle tow and impoundment at your expense."

Private landowners can't reserve city streets, said city Public Works Director Guy Costa. "They had no right to do that," he said of the warnings.

[...]

Mr. Costa said state law bars parking within three feet of a driveway, but the city is allowed to increase that distance as needed. He visited the site, and his department created a 42-foot no-parking zone next to the driveway. He said he would have made such an inspection and change for any property owner.

Of course he would. Why, in a city of 300,000, everyone gets that kind of personalized service, especially after they've pulled illegal BS.

Walnut Capital, which was started by a couple of trust fund babies, has been a bad-faith developer for a decade. Their M.O. is to make false promises to current residents (like telling tenants that they can come back after renovations), flout legal requirements (like preservation laws), screw around with important structures, and then pat themselves on the back for investing in the city.