The Consistent American Public

So as I said, I was, for unimportant reasons, looking at Atrios' archives for the second week of the war. Aside from posts bringing back the sickening feeling of those war-mad times, there was one that had fascinating polling data from Zogby on the eve of the war.

Currently, would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose a war against Iraq?"
Support 54%
Oppose 41%
Not Sure 5%

"Would you support or oppose a war against Iraq if it included sending in hundreds of thousands of U.S. ground troops?"
Support 47%
Oppose 45%
Not Sure 8%

"Would you support or oppose a war against Iraq if there were hundreds of American casualties?"
Support 46%
Oppose 47%
Not Sure 7%

"Would you support or oppose a war against Iraq if there were thousands of American casualties?"
Support 41%
Oppose 51%
Not Sure 8%

"Would you support or oppose a war against Iraq if it meant thousands of Iraqi civilian casualties?"
Support 40%
Oppose 53%
Not Sure 7%

Atrios noted the balance between opinion based on American & Iraqi civilian casualties, which obviously didn't pan out - perhaps if you add "tens of" to the Iraqi question, you'd get a more honest gauge of American attitudes towards US & Iraqi suffering.

But that's a sidenote. What's amazing, in retrospect, is that the poll was predictive. Support was tempered - albeit not down to even - once casualties were well into the hundreds. And by the time they were in the thousands, Americans threw the bums out over a war that seemed a sure political winner just a few years before.